May one attempt to forecast the long term future dynamic of the economy by examining the nascent or long term price breakouts (sometimes measured in multi-decade patterns) of economically important sectors of equities or commodities such as the gold and oil markets and to project forward further significant long term price progress in the group?

May one project the future dynamic of the U.S. economy from the current price behavior of commodities or equities sectors whose price performance is affected by economic activity relevant to their underlying businesses? The stock market has long been thought of as an economic forecasting tool, however imperfect it may be at that task.

What can we learn from Joseph Schumpeter's idea of "creative destruction" in capitalist economies as it applies to the U.S. current economic situation? How has the Obama administration and the Federal Reserve attempted to stop the economic process of creative destruction from taking place in our economy today? How has the Great Bailout harmed our country's economic future and the worth of our currency?

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It is widely known that government authorities across the globe are attempting to pump prime their nations' depression-racked economies by printing vast sums of paper money. Some nations, including the United States, are running trillion dollar deficits and will go deeper into debt in future years in order to finance an expansion that may not materialize as planned.

If we reach that point where the pump priming from the Fed and the fiscal excess of the government fail to keep the economic shell game going, the financial markets may lose greater confidence in our dollar (the dollar index is currently at 79.19 on June 1, 2009), Treasury bonds and stock market {Dow Futures at 8688 {(though the stock market may move higher as it has exceeded its 200 day moving average: a widely watched indicator)}.

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The currency markets, like most other financial markets, rise and fall partly based on international confidence in the economies, politics and monetary and taxation policies of the various nations whose paper money is traded through international exchanges.

The U.S. dollar enjoys a current status as a reserve currency.

The Wikipedia Free Encyclopedia defines a reserve currency as "a currency which is held in significant quantities by many governments and institutions as part of their foreign exchange reserves. It also tends to be the international pricing currency for products traded on a global market, such as oil, gold, etc."

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In my article, The Credit/Debt Crisis: A Depression Era Stock Market and America's Financial Failure?, published on my website on October 10, 2008, I posited four possible scenarios regarding the outlook for our general economic future. Of those four scenarios, it may be that we are experiencing the most chaotic and potentially destructive scenario, one that may be difficult for many to envisage:

That is the third outcome posited in the article: "In this case, the deflationary forces would win the battle against Federal Reserve easing and government action, at least temporarily. In response to a deflationary calamity, the Federal Reserve may run the printing presses until an inflationary recovery could take place. Gold may do well under this chaotic scenario."

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What is meant by the terms "real money" or "hard money"? I associate hard money with a gold-backed currency or a consistently well managed paper money standard, both of which can protect the financial system from the many dangers of a fiat, poorly managed paper standard. We know that the main danger of a paper standard is that if too much money is printed, it becomes worth less as the value of the money is inflated away through excess supply.

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We have seen the gold price peak at over $1,000 per ounce at the time of the Bear Stearns bailout, and decline into a correction afterwards. I have written on my website in previous articles for many months that I was expecting a temporary pause in the upward progress of the gold and oil markets, and in many other inflation hedge style investments.

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I would like to draw your attention to the following web page graph denoting the Presidential futures market vote shares between Democratic and Republican candidates in the upcoming 2008 Presidential Election (as expressed in the Iowa Electronic Markets - a respected election futures market):
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08_VS.cfm.

This shows a potential Obama victory in the Presidential election, as the Iowa Electronics Markets has a good record at predicting election outcomes.

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Please see the new updated article:
Inflation Hedge Strategies and Thoughts for 2010 and Beyond

The inflation that I believe may throttle though our economy in the late 2008-2010 period may not be the first inflationary economy many of us have ever seen. There is widespread commentary these days about the similarities between the stagflation/inflation that transpired in the 1970's, and what may be starting to happen in that manner in 2008 and going forward. There are the behavioral similarities between the 1970's and now: a rising gold price, increasing oil prices, an increase in the rate of inflation in certain commodities such as food, milk, farmland, copper, and a declining dollar (concurrent with a rise in the value of harder money currencies such as the Euro and the Swiss Franc).

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The disinflation we have experienced in our economy from 1982-2007 (until what I call the silent inflation of the last couple years turned into a more evident broader inflation in recent months) has been in my opinion one of the major underpinnings of the long term bull market in equities during much of the former period. This time was punctuated by the 1987 crash and the 2000-2003 post bubble era bear market. In addition, the lower regulation and non interference with the economy ushered in by the Reagan administration over two decades ago created an atmosphere conducive to investing in stocks and bonds - not to mention Paul Volker of the Federal Reserve Board being determined to successfully break the back of the 1970's embedded inflation.