http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/ Blog postings providing investment advice and insight by John Reizner en Copyright 2010 Sun, 30 May 2010 13:14:56 -0800 http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/ http://www.rssboard.org/rss-specification Editor's note: oil traded at $74.09 when this post was written). ]]> http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2010/05/deflation_risk_may_now_pervade.php http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2010/05/deflation_risk_may_now_pervade.php Collapse Gold Investing Inflation/Deflation Silver Investing Stock Market Advice Stock Market Strategies Sun, 30 May 2010 13:14:56 -0800 The stock market may continue to rise - but realizing partial profits at the present time and in the manner described below may be a way to protect your portfolio from a correction and enrich your emergency kitty. In this article, I describe price ranges on the Dow Jones futures continuation chart which may be levels to consider for such investment actions. The Dow Jones closed at 10,038 on the continuation chart on October 22, 2009. http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/10/is_taking_some_stock_market_pr.php http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/10/is_taking_some_stock_market_pr.php Stock Market Advice Stock Market Strategies stock investment advice stock investment strategies stock market strategies Fri, 23 Oct 2009 13:42:39 -0800 post that the case for a sharp increase in the price of silver may now be clearer. At the time I wrote that piece, silver had closed for the trading month of May 2009 at $15.73 per ounce on the futures continuation chart. I stated that the silver price could touch the $17 - $20 range, with the possibility of reaching the old 1980 high range of $32-$42 within one to two years in the form of a blow-off top. In fact the price rose to a high of $16.25 shortly thereafter before going into a correction. Silver has since rebounded, reaching as high as $17.69 while closing for the week of September 25, 2009 at $16.06 on the futures continuation chart. In view of this action, where might we go from here? ]]> http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/09/silver_rally_is_it_ready_for_p.php http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/09/silver_rally_is_it_ready_for_p.php Gold Investing Inflation/Deflation Silver Investing silver market analysis Fri, 25 Sep 2009 22:46:58 -0800 weekly chart support at the 8640 area on this contract and a daily support band between 8290-8415, either of which may act as a barrier to further decline should a correction ensue. I expect these support ranges should hold. Note: this website will soon present charts on a regular basis. ]]> http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/09/stock_market_rally_sustained_b.php http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/09/stock_market_rally_sustained_b.php Stock Market Advice Stock Market Strategies Richard Hoey stock investment advice stock market strategies Fri, 18 Sep 2009 20:25:46 -0800 Both top performing former Mutual Series Funds manager Michael Price and Dreman Value Management's David Dreman concur that rising stock prices in the coming years may present opportunity for stock market profits - if you are invested in the right stocks and if you understand the economic nature of the "recovery." Bloomberg.com reported on September 9, 2009 that Price, who sold his Mutual Series Funds to Franklin Resources in 1996, is finding value in selected equities in today's market. He sees similarities between the 1974-1982 100% stock market rise, and today's 50% ascent from the March 2009 bottom of 6469. The 1974 market trough to which Price alluded was a once in a generation buying opportunity, when the Dow ascended from a low of 577.60. http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/09/stock_market_bull_run_may_last.php http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/09/stock_market_bull_run_may_last.php Fate of the U.S. Dollar Inflation/Deflation Stock Market Advice Stock Market Strategies David Dreman Michael Price stock investment advice stock market strategies Wed, 09 Sep 2009 20:34:16 -0800 President Obama announced on August 25, 2009 that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke would be reappointed to another four year term. Bernanke's appointment, which will likely be confirmed by the Senate, may impact the course of American economic development for many years to come. Many observers have speculated on what form the Chairman's exit strategy from his policy of monetary ease will take - a policy that saved a select group of failing companies (and their employees' jobs) and potentially prevented a deeper collapse of the stock market and financial system. http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/08/the_bernanke_exit_strategy_sev.php http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/08/the_bernanke_exit_strategy_sev.php Fate of the U.S. Dollar Gold Investing Inflation/Deflation Silver Investing Stock Market Advice Stock Market Strategies Barack Obama Bernanke stock investment advice U.S. dollar Thu, 27 Aug 2009 19:22:23 -0800 Both Warren Buffett in his August 18, 2009 editorial in the New York Times and Curtis Mewbourne in an August 2009 report on investment manager PIMCO's website appear to concur on the fate of the U.S. dollar: that it may continue to fall. The dollar index (September 2009 contract) closed August 18 at 79.035. Buffett points out that "the current account deficit - dollars that we force-feed to the rest of the world and that must be invested - will be $400 billion or so this year." He adds that there have recently been indications that foreign nations holding U.S. dollars have been investing in our companies, financial markets, and real estate in addition to U.S. Treasury instruments. According to Wikipedia, lenders from Japan and China own over 45% of U.S. foreign debt. http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/08/warren_buffett_and_pimco_concu.php http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/08/warren_buffett_and_pimco_concu.php Collapse Fate of the U.S. Dollar Inflation/Deflation Politics emerging market currencies PIMCO U.S. dollar Warren Buffett Wed, 19 Aug 2009 19:21:57 -0800 BNY Mellon and Dreyfus Chief Economist, Richard Hoey, elaborated on the potential for a continuing bull market in stocks (though not without corrections) in an August 7, 2009 interview on CNBC. The Dow Jones industrial Average closed at 9370.07 on that date. Hoey stated "we are at a particular cyclical moment." Further, he said that the global recession is over and that the leading economic indicators for every major country in the world are rising. "We are going to have rising real GNP for practically every significant country in the world in the third quarter," Hoey stated. http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/08/economist_richard_hoey_sees_st.php http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/08/economist_richard_hoey_sees_st.php Stock Market Advice Stock Market Strategies Richard Hoey stock investment advice stock investment strategies stock market Mon, 10 Aug 2009 14:05:59 -0800 Economist Richard Hoey of BNY Mellon & Dreyfus is a veteran forecaster with many prescient calls to his credit. In an interview on July 27th on CNBC, Hoey stated that "the evidence is now clear cut" that the Fed has done enough to stabilize the financial system. He further stated that a "classic recession bottom" is in place and he expects 3 to 3 ½% economic growth in 2010. Hoey states that "massive inventory liquidation" took place during the 2nd quarter and that auto and housing weakness was so profound that there will be no more exhaustion. He notes that Chrysler has shut down all its plants in America (a sign of the times...) and that you cannot exhaust something further that is not there. Hoey sees the roughly 20% of consumers who still have assets left carrying the weight for his projected economic turnaround. http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/07/is_the_stock_market_rally_for.php http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/07/is_the_stock_market_rally_for.php Inflation/Deflation Politics Stock Market Advice Stock Market Strategies Bernanke Richard Hoey stock investment advice stock market strategies Tue, 28 Jul 2009 14:52:16 -0800 Readers of my blog may know that I anticipate rising price levels and higher interest rates in 2010 and beyond. Bear in mind that it takes time, sometimes years, for a strong inflation to embed itself in the economy. I want to talk about ways to protect your portfolio from rising prices and interest rates, but first a bit of history: While President Nixon was in office, Fed Chairman Arthur Burns responded to pressure from the White House eager to have a strong economy when Presidential ballots were cast in 1972. Burns expanded the money supply to help ensure a growing economy in time for Nixon's reelection. Inflation soared to 12% by 1974. The oil shock in 1973 compounded the economic and inflation situation. The stock market lost almost half its value, and inflation hedge investments such as gold and silver plummeted from their highs when the economy dove into a deep recession in 1973-74. In this case, political expediency led to easy monetary policies and extremely high inflation. http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/07/protect_your_investment_portfo.php http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/07/protect_your_investment_portfo.php Gold Investing Inflation/Deflation Silver Investing Stock Market Strategies Bernanke gold market analysis inflation hedge silver market analysis Tue, 21 Jul 2009 13:42:25 -0800 See specific gold and silver strategies Could it be possible to think in our current economic times that America may lose complete control over its own economic future? Has an economic and financial process begun that may not easily be undone that could threaten the very core of what is left of our economic, financial and social well-being? I believe one big problem lies with the pyramiding of debt over decades by our elected officials: the rapid expansion of the United States public debt and our country's expanding yearly budget deficits. The national debt is now $11 trillion. Wikipedia states that under the 2010 Obama budget projections, the debt is projected to reach $20 trillion by 2015, but is expected to increase to nearly 100% of GDP by 2010 and remain at that level. Vice President Joe Biden has now admitted to miscalculating the "strength" of the potential recovery. All bets are off. And that is what I believe the Obama stimulus plan(s) are doing: adding to our debt and betting our future on failing companies and industries. ]]> http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/07/americas_economic_future_may_w.php http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/07/americas_economic_future_may_w.php Collapse Fate of the U.S. Dollar Gold Investing Inflation/Deflation Politics Silver Investing Stock Market Strategies 1921-22 depression Barack Obama Bernanke creative destruction gold market analysis Fri, 10 Jul 2009 18:33:46 -0800 I bought gold bars and coins in 2003 at $354, $377 and $383.50 per troy ounce, and in 2004 at $431 per troy ounce. I purchased gold coins in 2009 at $1000 per ounce. I also purchased silver bullion this year. I am continually reevaluating my gold and silver positions to account for changes in the market. The gold market, as I stated in my previous blog entry (see related posts below), emerged from a large flag formation on the weekly chart when the gold price on the August 2009 contract rose from $900 in January of 2009 to a high of $1006 the following month and then retreated. It has since made another run at the February high which is unsuccessful as of this writing (that may change). http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/06/i_sold_some_of_my_gold_positio.php http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/06/i_sold_some_of_my_gold_positio.php Gold Investing Inflation/Deflation gold market analysis gold market psychology gold prices John Templeton Tue, 23 Jun 2009 22:10:16 -0800 perhaps much sooner. The use of price charts and similar analysis has key limitations, and no one can predict with accuracy short-term price movements. Nonetheless, the possibilities here are interesting.]]> http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/05/silver_market_may_be_embarking.php http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/05/silver_market_may_be_embarking.php Gold Investing Silver Investing gold market analysis Hunt Brothers silver bullion silver market analysis Sat, 30 May 2009 13:00:15 -0800 As the dollar begins to cascade down once again with the dollar index at 81.64, many market participants, including this writer, are coming to the conclusion that America's domestic and foreign debts will be repaid with dollars that are worth much less. Many participants agree that the U.S. Treasury bonds that we and other nations hold will end up being worth less in real terms (i.e., will be able to buy fewer goods and services), and perhaps a great deal less in future years. http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/05/obama_and_bernanke_may_destroy.php http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/05/obama_and_bernanke_may_destroy.php Collapse Fate of the U.S. Dollar Inflation/Deflation Chinese yuan inflation hedge Jim Rogers reserve currency Warren Buffett Fri, 22 May 2009 16:30:59 -0800 I am not a great believer in the governing abilities of our former President, George W. Bush, but I do think his concept of having wide swaths of Americans participate in an ownership society was a laudable goal. The concept included large numbers of Americans riding a wave of prosperity engendered through ownership in appreciating assets such as homes, businesses and retirement accounts. This was viewed as a ticket toward upward mobility. At least that was the theory. http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/05/the_ownership_society_worthy_c.php http://www.reiznersway.com/blog/2009/05/the_ownership_society_worthy_c.php Collapse Hedge Funds, etc. Politics free market economics ownership society politics Sat, 09 May 2009 00:04:59 -0800