Both Warren Buffett in his August 18, 2009 editorial in the New York Times and Curtis Mewbourne in an August 2009 report on investment manager PIMCO's website appear to concur on the fate of the U.S. dollar: that it may continue to fall. The dollar index (September 2009 contract) closed August 18 at 79.035.

Buffett points out that "the current account deficit - dollars that we force-feed to the rest of the world and that must be invested - will be $400 billion or so this year." He adds that there have recently been indications that foreign nations holding U.S. dollars have been investing in our companies, financial markets, and real estate in addition to U.S. Treasury instruments. According to Wikipedia, lenders from Japan and China own over 45% of U.S. foreign debt.

Economist Richard Hoey of BNY Mellon & Dreyfus is a veteran forecaster with many prescient calls to his credit. In an interview on July 27th on CNBC, Hoey stated that "the evidence is now clear cut" that the Fed has done enough to stabilize the financial system. He further stated that a "classic recession bottom" is in place and he expects 3 to 3 ½% economic growth in 2010.

Hoey states that "massive inventory liquidation" took place during the 2nd quarter and that auto and housing weakness was so profound that there will be no more exhaustion. He notes that Chrysler has shut down all its plants in America (a sign of the times...) and that you cannot exhaust something further that is not there. Hoey sees the roughly 20% of consumers who still have assets left carrying the weight for his projected economic turnaround.

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Could it be possible to think in our current economic times that America may lose complete control over its own economic future? Has an economic and financial process begun that may not easily be undone that could threaten the very core of what is left of our economic, financial and social well-being?

I believe one big problem lies with the pyramiding of debt over decades by our elected officials: the rapid expansion of the United States public debt and our country's expanding yearly budget deficits. The national debt is now $11 trillion. Wikipedia states that under the 2010 Obama budget projections, the debt is projected to reach $20 trillion by 2015, but is expected to increase to nearly 100% of GDP by 2010 and remain at that level. Vice President Joe Biden has now admitted to miscalculating the "strength" of the potential recovery. All bets are off. And that is what I believe the Obama stimulus plan(s) are doing: adding to our debt and betting our future on failing companies and industries.

I am not a great believer in the governing abilities of our former President, George W. Bush, but I do think his concept of having wide swaths of Americans participate in an ownership society was a laudable goal. The concept included large numbers of Americans riding a wave of prosperity engendered through ownership in appreciating assets such as homes, businesses and retirement accounts. This was viewed as a ticket toward upward mobility. At least that was the theory.

A member of the Obama team said recently on a major financial television network that the savings in the administration's budget are coming from changes in our healthcare system, and yes, from tax increases. I guess in this new world, federal spending cuts have morphed into tax increases!

Changing the nature of our healthcare system, then, is the Obama administration's real key to actual cuts in the federal budget. And that may mean deep cuts in physician and provider reimbursements, refusal of some physicians or providers to accept such reduced payments (unless mandated by law), and the potential for the rationing of care.

Background: I remember in February 2007, the Shanghai market cracked, and ours followed sharply downward the next day. However, both our markets and the Shanghai Exchange snapped back shortly thereafter as quickly as they had fallen.

This was a wakeup call for me, and the first time that I questioned the American bull market in stocks that began in 2003. I wrote about this in my article, Are Stocks Still Worthwhile Investments? A Reconsideration: The Odds of a Panic, posted in April 2007, where I wrote that there may have been an "unsupported speculative fever" underlying the stock market.

The Federal Reserve was set up originally as an independent body to so that it would be free of being influenced by the winds of political opinion. Robert Reich made the point recently in his blog that the Federal Reserve has committed 2.5 trillion dollars thus far to rescue our financial system from its credit seize up and from the black hole in the housing market. Most of the Fed's actions are being done behind closed doors. This is all in the name of the "monetary ease" to which Fed Chairman Bernanke referred in a speech on February 18, 2009. I agree with Reich that the bailout process is hardly transparent, as the true eventual cost for which taxpayers may be on the hook is unknown.