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Fate of the U.S. Dollar Archives

March 14, 2011

Inflation, QE2 and Financial Survival in 2011: Five Questions to Ask

In 2008 few Americans were privy to the discussions that determined whether the world financial system would completely implode or be saved. Wall Street was crashing while policymakers argued about what was to be done in the little time before the unthinkable could happen.

However, we all know now that the system is potentially being "saved" by the ongoing economic bailout: including Ben Bernanke's QE1 and now QE2. We are now faced with a new economic reality raising the following five questions regarding the potential growth of one's money and one's financial survival in an economy with potentially high rates of inflation in 2011 and beyond:

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October 10, 2010

U.S. Stock Market, Precious Metals and Fed Watch: October 10, 2010; Pre-U.S. Midterm Election Letter

Wednesday, October 6, 2010's Wall Street Journal's front page headline read: "Central Banks Open Spigot.... Japan launches Bond Buying, Fed Officials Urge More Easing."

If the Federal Reserve led by Ben Bernanke adopts this much anticipated policy of a second round of quantitative easing , then U.S. economic deflation for the foreseeable future may be off the table. A cautiously rising stock market may be reflecting the belief that "the huge bond-buying effort they (the Fed) ended in March (2010) is likely to be resumed." We know that the U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average peaked shortly after that bond buying ended and fell rather dramatically.

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September 9, 2009

Stock Market Bull Run May Last say Two Top Performing Money Managers

Both top performing former Mutual Series Funds manager Michael Price and Dreman Value Management's David Dreman concur that rising stock prices in the coming years may present opportunity for stock market profits - if you are invested in the right stocks and if you understand the economic nature of the "recovery."

Bloomberg.com reported on September 9, 2009 that Price, who sold his Mutual Series Funds to Franklin Resources in 1996, is finding value in selected equities in today's market. He sees similarities between the 1974-1982 100% stock market rise, and today's 50% ascent from the March 2009 bottom of 6469. The 1974 market trough to which Price alluded was a once in a generation buying opportunity, when the Dow ascended from a low of 577.60.

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August 27, 2009

The Bernanke Exit Strategy: Seven Stock Market and Economic Consequences

President Obama announced on August 25, 2009 that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke would be reappointed to another four year term. Bernanke's appointment, which will likely be confirmed by the Senate, may impact the course of American economic development for many years to come.

Many observers have speculated on what form the Chairman's exit strategy from his policy of monetary ease will take - a policy that saved a select group of failing companies (and their employees' jobs) and potentially prevented a deeper collapse of the stock market and financial system.

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August 19, 2009

Warren Buffett and PIMCO Concur on the Potential Fate of the U.S. Dollar

Both Warren Buffett in his August 18, 2009 editorial in the New York Times and Curtis Mewbourne in an August 2009 report on investment manager PIMCO's website appear to concur on the fate of the U.S. dollar: that it may continue to fall. The dollar index (September 2009 contract) closed August 18 at 79.035.

Buffett points out that "the current account deficit - dollars that we force-feed to the rest of the world and that must be invested - will be $400 billion or so this year." He adds that there have recently been indications that foreign nations holding U.S. dollars have been investing in our companies, financial markets, and real estate in addition to U.S. Treasury instruments. According to Wikipedia, lenders from Japan and China own over 45% of U.S. foreign debt.

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July 10, 2009

U.S. Economic Future: May We Lose Complete Control over our Destiny?

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Could it be possible to think in our current economic times that America may lose complete control over its own economic future? Has an economic and financial process begun that may not easily be undone that could threaten the very core of what is left of our economic, financial and social well-being?

I believe one big problem lies with the pyramiding of debt over decades by our elected officials: the rapid expansion of the United States public debt and our country's expanding yearly budget deficits. The national debt is now $11 trillion. Wikipedia states that under the 2010 Obama budget projections, the debt is projected to reach $20 trillion by 2015, but is expected to increase to nearly 100% of GDP by 2010 and remain at that level. Vice President Joe Biden has now admitted to miscalculating the "strength" of the potential recovery. All bets are off. And that is what I believe the Obama stimulus plan(s) are doing: adding to our debt and betting our future on failing companies and industries.

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May 22, 2009

Obama and Bernanke May Destroy the U.S. Dollar to Repay National and Foreign Debt

As the dollar begins to cascade down once again with the dollar index at 81.64, many market participants, including this writer, are coming to the conclusion that America's domestic and foreign debts will be repaid with dollars that are worth much less. Many participants agree that the U.S. Treasury bonds that we and other nations hold will end up being worth less in real terms (i.e., will be able to buy fewer goods and services), and perhaps a great deal less in future years.

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April 6, 2009

The Future of the Dollar: Worth Less or Just Worthless?

The fate of a nation is often dictated by the fate of its currency, like it or not. Should there be a national and/or international loss of confidence in a country's paper currency due to the authorities' reckless fiscal and monetary policies or the inability of a country to meet its financial obligations, the currency may become almost worthless, as history has shown. In these cases, national economies have sometimes been destroyed.

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