Can the Gold and Oil Markets Price Performance Telegraph Future U.S. Economic Conditions?
May one attempt to forecast the long term future dynamic of the economy by examining the nascent or long term price breakouts (sometimes measured in multi-decade patterns) of economically important sectors of equities or commodities such as the gold and oil markets and to project forward further significant long term price progress in the group?
May one project the future dynamic of the U.S. economy from the current price behavior of commodities or equities sectors whose price performance is affected by economic activity relevant to their underlying businesses? The stock market has long been thought of as an economic forecasting tool, however imperfect it may be at that task.