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I would like to draw your attention to the following web page graph denoting the Presidential futures market vote shares between Democratic and Republican candidates in the upcoming 2008 Presidential Election (as expressed in the Iowa Electronic Markets – a respected election futures market):
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08_VS.cfm.

This shows a potential Obama victory in the Presidential election, as the Iowa Electronics Markets has a good record at predicting election outcomes.

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Posted at 10:16 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

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Sir John Templeton’s sentiment that never before in U.S. history has our government and its citizens accumulated the level of financial debt as we have recently was referenced in my February 28th, 2007 article. And it is the citizenry who usually suffers from the eventual debt reckoning, forcing a decline in their living standards, Templeton believes.

The last great debt liquidation in the United States happened as the 1930’s Depression unfolded. After the stock market Crash of October 1929, the fledgling Federal Reserve shrank the money supply by a third, presumably to fight inflation, only exasperating the severe economic downturn of the 1930’s.

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The inflation that I believe may throttle though our economy in the late 2008-2010 period may not be the first inflationary economy many of us have ever seen. There is widespread commentary these days about the similarities between the stagflation/inflation that transpired in the 1970’s, and what may be starting to happen in that manner in 2008 and going forward. There are the behavioral similarities between the 1970’s and now: a rising gold price, increasing oil prices, an increase in the rate of inflation in certain commodities such as food, milk, farmland, copper, and a declining dollar (concurrent with a rise in the value of harder money currencies such as the Euro and the Swiss Franc).

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The disinflation we have experienced in our economy from 1982-2007 (until what I call the silent inflation of the last couple years turned into a more evident broader inflation in recent months) has been in my opinion one of the major underpinnings of the long term bull market in equities during much of the former period. This time was punctuated by the 1987 crash and the 2000-2003 post bubble era bear market. In addition, the lower regulation and non interference with the economy ushered in by the Reagan administration over two decades ago created an atmosphere conducive to investing in stocks and bonds – not to mention Paul Volker of the Federal Reserve Board being determined to successfully break the back of the 1970’s embedded inflation.

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We are entering, in my opinion, a period of economic and stock market turbulence that will affect the pocketbooks of our citizenry going forward. Commentators on financial television have been reluctant until recent days to make the analogy of the present period to the awful economic period of the 1970's, which has been my thesis for some time.

Continue reading "The Stock Market and Economy: A Return to the 1970's in Form?" »

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