Downloadable PDF version of this article

Americans are known for voting according to the health of their pocketbooks, and this year’s election may be no exception. While Ronald Reagan’s election in 1980 emerged out of the very noticeable dissatisfaction with the economic policies of the Carter years, Senator Obama may capitalize on similar sentiment among voters today in the race for the Presidency.

Continue reading "The Obama Factor: Why His "Change" May Make You Economically Worse Off" »

Posted at 2:13 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Downloadable PDF version of this article

I would like to draw your attention to the following web page graph denoting the Presidential futures market vote shares between Democratic and Republican candidates in the upcoming 2008 Presidential Election (as expressed in the Iowa Electronic Markets – a respected election futures market):
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08_VS.cfm.

This shows a potential Obama victory in the Presidential election, as the Iowa Electronics Markets has a good record at predicting election outcomes.

Continue reading "How Obama May Bomb the Stock Market and the Economy in 2009-2010" »

Posted at 10:16 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Downloadable PDF version of this article

Sir John Templeton’s sentiment that never before in U.S. history has our government and its citizens accumulated the level of financial debt as we have recently was referenced in my February 28th, 2007 article. And it is the citizenry who usually suffers from the eventual debt reckoning, forcing a decline in their living standards, Templeton believes.

The last great debt liquidation in the United States happened as the 1930’s Depression unfolded. After the stock market Crash of October 1929, the fledgling Federal Reserve shrank the money supply by a third, presumably to fight inflation, only exasperating the severe economic downturn of the 1930’s.

Continue reading "Call to the Bernanke Federal Reserve: Round up the Debt!" »

Posted at 2:26 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Downloadable PDF version of this article

The inflation that I believe may throttle though our economy in the late 2008-2010 period may not be the first inflationary economy many of us have ever seen. There is widespread commentary these days about the similarities between the stagflation/inflation that transpired in the 1970’s, and what may be starting to happen in that manner in 2008 and going forward. There are the behavioral similarities between the 1970’s and now: a rising gold price, increasing oil prices, an increase in the rate of inflation in certain commodities such as food, milk, farmland, copper, and a declining dollar (concurrent with a rise in the value of harder money currencies such as the Euro and the Swiss Franc).

Continue reading "Strategies for the Coming Inflation of 2009-2010" »

Posted at 3:27 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Downloadable PDF version of this article

The disinflation we have experienced in our economy from 1982-2007 (until what I call the silent inflation of the last couple years turned into a more evident broader inflation in recent months) has been in my opinion one of the major underpinnings of the long term bull market in equities during much of the former period. This time was punctuated by the 1987 crash and the 2000-2003 post bubble era bear market. In addition, the lower regulation and non interference with the economy ushered in by the Reagan administration over two decades ago created an atmosphere conducive to investing in stocks and bonds – not to mention Paul Volker of the Federal Reserve Board being determined to successfully break the back of the 1970’s embedded inflation.

Continue reading "Stock Prices and the End of Disinflation" »

Posted at 3:22 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)